SENTIMENT & MONEY FLOW DISCREPANCY INDICATOR · C4 · INSTITUTIONAL ONLY
Every other HKM instrument works with stated belief — what people are willing to say out loud, where it costs nothing to be wrong. Conviction Gap adds a structurally different signal: capital-backed probability markets, where the people setting the price are willing to be materially wrong with their own money. When the two align, you have confirmation. When they diverge, the divergence itself is the intelligence.
THE READING
Two readings are consensus — they tell you not to overpay for the narrative. One tells you the crowd is running ahead of capital, which is usually performative discourse. And one — the reading our institutional clients pay for — tells you capital is quietly repositioning before the public narrative has formed. That reading is flagged the moment it appears.
One boundary, stated up front because it is firm: Conviction Gap is decision infrastructure. It is not investment advice, not a trading signal, not a recommendation to take any position. If a prospect is looking for trade signals, the engagement does not proceed.
THREE TIERS
A monthly public artefact reading five to eight globally resonant themes through the Conviction Gap lens. The executive summary is free — including the validation record and the misses. A firm that only shows you its wins is not a firm you should trust with your macro read.
A weekly two-page institutional note on the five prediction markets most relevant to Hong Kong capital: implied probability, seven-day change, matched sentiment direction, quadrant placement, and historical calibration. Mid-week updates on material moves. Every Monday morning. Institutional clients only.
For a specific decision: a backtested lead-lag study with confidence intervals — including a null result if that is what the data says; a probability-weighted demand forecast ahead of a named event; a 48-to-72-hour post-announcement narrative audit; or a post-campaign review that strips the macro variable out of the performance number.
WHO IT SERVES
Concentrated, macro-exposed positions and no systematic way to know whether a trending theme is backed by real positioning or is performative discourse. Paying for the reading that says capital is moving while the conversation is still quiet.
Scenario planning with base, upside, and downside labels but no explicit probabilities behind them. Capital-backed probability inputs — with calibration disclosed — change the quality of the planning conversation.
The first 48 to 72 hours after an announcement determine how the narrative sets. We report within the window whether the signal is building constructively or a specific concern is forming — while there is still time to respond rather than react.
F&B, retail, hospitality, and sponsors committing serious money around calendar events. Is the excitement pricing an exceptional outcome or a routine one? A probability-weighted forecast before the commitment is locked.
One question, answered with methodological discipline: does social discourse lead capital conviction in this theme, and by how much? If the relationship is weak, we say so plainly. Clients who see that honesty first-hand tend to come back.
A redacted current Desk Note, or a scoped quotation for the standing note or a bounded study
Calibration records and the monthly Conviction Index are published in Research & Updates →
